UK consumer prices rose 2.6% in the year to June, down from 2.8% in May and below the 2.7% economists had pencilled in, according to figures published this morning by the Office for National Statistics, the government body that measures inflation. That is the softest annual reading since March 2025. On the month prices barely moved, up just 0.1%, against a 0.3% rise in the same month a year earlier.
The slowdown was led by the pump. Transport inflation eased to 5.7% from 6.8%, with the biggest single pull coming from motor fuels, diesel in particular, as the spring's oil price spike continued to unwind. Food helped too, cooling to 1.7%, its lowest since August 2024, from 2.2% in May. The stickier corners of the basket held firmer: core inflation, which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco to show the underlying trend, stayed at 2.6%, while services inflation, the domestically generated prices driven by wages that the Bank of England watches most closely, edged down only to 3.6% from 3.7%. The headline is falling faster than the pressures that actually keep policymakers awake.
That gap frames next week. The Bank of England, which sets UK interest rates, holds its next decision on 30 July, a "Super Thursday" that comes with a full set of new forecasts. Rates have sat at 3.75% since the June meeting, held in a 7 to 2 vote with two members pushing for a rise, and the Bank's chief economist warned this month that borrowing costs may still need to climb. A headline back below the old target neighbourhood, paired with services that remain firm and a labour market that on Tuesday showed unemployment holding at 4.9%, points to the Bank keeping rates where they are rather than moving in either direction.
What it means for GBP/USD
The pound eased on the release, slipping to around 1.3375 against the dollar as traders trimmed what little chance of another rate rise they had priced for the coming months, and lower rate expectations tend to weigh on a currency by reducing the return on holding it. The picture from here is finely balanced: sticky services inflation still argues for the Bank staying restrictive and lending sterling support, while a firm dollar and a cautious 30 July message could keep the pound on the back foot. For a business with dollar costs to meet in the months ahead, a forward contract can lock in today's rate for a payment due later, taking the next data surprise out of the budgeting.
