American employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, against the 80,000 gain economists had pencilled in, according to figures published this afternoon by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US agency that compiles the jobs numbers. That sits against an average monthly gain of 34,000 over the previous twelve months. The revisions did further damage: May was cut by 66,000 to 63,000 and June by 37,000 to 20,000, leaving those two months a combined 103,000 lower than first reported.
The losses were concentrated rather than broad. Local government education shed 50,000 posts, retail trade 19,000 and financial activities another 14,000, an industry now down 121,000 from its peak in May 2025. Health care kept growing, adding 22,000, though at well below its 36,000 monthly average for the past year. The household survey looked healthier on the surface, with the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1% from 4.2%, but it fell for the wrong reason: the participation rate, the share of adults either working or looking for work, is down 0.7 percentage points since January, so the pool being measured is simply shrinking. Pay told the same cooling story, with average hourly earnings up 3.2% over the year and just two cents on the month.
That lands awkwardly at the Federal Reserve, the US central bank. Only last week the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9 to 3 vote, with three policymakers dissenting in favour of a quarter point rise, the first time since 2016 that three had broken ranks in the same direction. Markets had begun to price the odds of a September increase. A month of falling employment, on top of inflation that cooled to 3.5% in June, makes that case considerably harder to hold. Bonds moved first: the two year Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to rate expectations, fell more than six basis points to 4.176%.
What it means for GBP/USD
The pound climbed on the release, trading around 1.3505 against the dollar and up roughly 0.4% on the day, after a European morning spent defensive near 1.3450 while tension around the Strait of Hormuz kept safe haven demand for the dollar intact. The gain comes from the American side rather than any improvement at home, with Bank Rate held at 3.75% on 30 July and the Bank of England showing no urgency to move in either direction. That leaves the pair between a US labour market that is visibly cooling and a UK one offering sterling little fresh support, and next week's US inflation reading will decide which argument carries. For a business paying dollar suppliers or staff later in the year, a forward contract fixes today's rate for a settlement date up to two years out and takes the next payrolls surprise out of the budget.
